The World's Biggest Losers

There's one born every minute

“Would you set up a bank account and link it to this burner phone?”

John was one of the straightest guys I knew. He was the kind of guy who wore business casual to the pool. We’d worked together for a while. I liked John but he struck me as the sort of person who would go home at 8pm on a Saturday*.

So when he asked me to place tens of thousands of dollars of bets related to sporting events on his behalf and cover it up from the betting company, I was surprised. Most requests I get from friends are along the lines of “Do you know a plumber?” or “Where might I get some edibles?”. BTW someone needs to set up a business that combines these two thing: “Repairs for your home and mind”.

The background here is that John, like half the world, had got into sports betting. But he had approached it with a diligence and mathematical rigour that most punters lack. Specifically he had found a flaw in the odds that a major betting platform offered for a particular scenario. This meant you were guaranteed a payout. So he had bet big and won big. But bookies don’t like you to win. So his account had been suspended. So John had starting asking his friends set up accounts on his behalf then given them a cut of proceedings. He had amassed several hundred thousand dollars this way.

I said no.

This may surprise many readers of this Substack but I had finally been offered something that was too dodgy even for me. I didn’t doubt that John doing what he said he was doing but there was always a very faint chance he was doing some drug smuggling or a little cheeky terrorism.

John is unusual in that he made money from gambling. Not David “build a crazy art palace” Walsh money. But “build a nice deck out back” money. Most people lose money - esp. in Australia.

Australian’s are the world’s biggest gamblers - and therefore losers. In terms of Skittles Twitter Limit Case, Australians are to gambling what America is to guns. In 2023, $244bn dollars was bet in Australia - or $12k per adult according to official figures (so probably higher than that). Over three quarters of that was via gaming machines or “pokies” as we call them here. The total amount lost by these punters equated to $31bn (about a 13% loss) or $1,527 per adult.

In-venue pokie machine gambling has become increasingly controversial in Australia - initially despite and then because of the close relationship between pokie venue owners and political parties. The financial harm and criminal money laundering opportunities have become too big to avoid. However these may be yesterday’s battles.

Online sports betting is taking off in Australia: “Compared to those who gambled mostly in venues, individuals who gambled online were more likely to be male, single parents, experience some level of gambling problems, gamble more frequently, report loneliness and higher household income, and less likely to be in the oldest age groups, have high levels of psychological distress, and be out of labour force.”

Pokies remain the gambling drug of choice for older Australians but younger men are going for online sports betting - just are they are elsewhere in the world.

More broadly online sports betting in the USA is emerging as a key part of the “Zynternet” - a bro-centric world of bitcoin, personal improvement podcasts, memes, horniness, right-wing politics, and nicotine pouch chewing. A few months ago, I found myself in conversation with a man who loves dude podcasts and nicotine pouches and who was outraged when I suggested he might be part of a broader trend. Every bro is his own special snowflake.

In the short term, sports betting will mean people losing more money. If you combine it with a crypto habit then it could end badly. Just as crack destroyed urban communities in the 80s, so the various forms of online investment gambling could have equally toxic outcomes.

The gambling platform eventually closed John’s loophole and he shut down his operation. You've got to know when to hold 'em. Know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away. And know when to run.

*TBF that’s many of us as we cross into our 50s. I love club nights that run from 4pm to midnight. The only herbal thing I want at that stage is tea.