Hype
The Gartner Hype Cycle is a widely feared derided used framework to explain how “hot” a technology is and whether people are actually using it. In theory, it is proprietary to the Gartner technology analysis firm. In practice, people talk about it all the time. While it is a gross oversimplification of the nature of technological adoption, it is a useful gross oversimplification. Towards the end of this rant, I’ll show how it simplifies. But for now, lets run with it.
The Hype Cycle is kind of a Technology Hero’s Journey. You can also kind of relate it back to the Innovation Adoption Lifecycle that we looked at a couple of months ago. A technology is born in a lab or on a computer somewhere - often unheralded and only loved by its parents. It moves from the breast milk of innovator labour to the solid food of investment dollars*. Some technologies die young**. Some continue to grow and garner attention.
After some period of time, some people start saying that this new technology will solve all the problems created by our old technologies and because everyone is greedy and stupid, we believe this.
It turns that this new technology doesn’t solve all the problems. And because people are stupid, we blame the new technology and not our own gullibility.
Everyone then says that the new technology is awful.
Pause.
Some people either keep the faith with the new technology or find something useful for it to do. And it turns out the new technology is kinda good after all. Just not as good as we thought is was once upon a time.
And repeat. Ad nauseum.
You can see this happening in real time with Generative AI right now. Play along with us at home.
Boredom
The reason I’m outlining all this is that I was at a Deep Tech event on Wednesday night and people were asking me why I was there. And the non-sarcastic answer is that I was there because of The Hype Cycle. But not just the Hype Cycle. Also Boredom.
I need to add some additional data to the Hype Cycle.
I find a lot of technology boring. But this is less due to the intrinsic nature of the technology itself than the Hype around it. For example, I find Generative AI boring. Back in 2021 I’d probably have found it interesting. I’ll probably find it interesting again in 2026. But right now, it’s boring.
The problem for me is that I find the Hype dull. People present me with a plethora of outlandish claims - some of which might actually be true. But you need to have really detailed technical knowledge to parse those claims and sometimes even that might not be enough.
So I leave the Hype-y stuff alone. I’m much more interested in the before and after.
Actual stuff that works reliably is of great interest to me.
Crazy stuff that may be awesome in the future but that no one has heard of is also of interest to me.
To put it in musical terms:
That weird lo-fi indie-dance producer practicing next door and I can’t decide if he’s actually making music? Interesting.
Taylor Swift? Not interesting.
Phil Collins? Interesting.
That’s why I’m at the Deep Tech event. I’m into it until it appears on the cover of a business publication then it’s dead to me. Until it goes through the other side and is normcore.
I’m not saying this is how you should be. Clearly most people aren’t. But it is how I am and I don’t seem to be able to change that so I might as well live with it.
Complications
Here is the first Gartner Hype Cycle from 1995. Some parts of it are adorably vintage: e.g. “Information Superhighway” (you can almost hear the voice of Al Gore). But others show that things move and different rates and in different directions.
Wireless communications moved far faster than this diagram envisioned. The 00s saw the development and proliferation of both 3G and WiFi.
Speech Recognition turned out to be less further up the Slope and took over 20 years to get acceptance.
Virtual Reality seems to have been stuck in the same position in terms of adoption for the last 30 years despite billions in investment and multiple generations of the technology. It is always next year that will be VR’s year. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Although it is hard to catch a bouquet wearing a headset.
Video Conferencing developed steadily until the pandemic gave it a major shot in the arm in 2020. The Hype Cycle cannot account for Acts of God.
The Hype Cycle is perhaps yet another reminder that it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
It should make us humble.
But humility is for losers.
*I was grossed out by that metaphor as well but that’s not going to stop me.
**Must. Resist. Urge. For. Really. Tasteless. Metaphor.
You had me until the Phil Collins reference.